| Ramzi Chamat
The real estate market, often seen as a barometer of a country's economy, is influenced by many factors. Among these, interest rates play a pivotal role. In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has recently adjusted its monetary policy, which has had notable repercussions on the real estate market.
Introduction
Switzerland, known for its economic stability and financial prudence, has seen sustained growth in its real estate market in recent years. However, the recent rise in interest rates by the SNB has raised questions about the future of this market. This analysis aims to explore the implications of this rate hike and understand its effects on different segments of the Swiss real estate market.
I. Context: Rise in interest rates by the SNB
The SNB has increased the base rate five times since June 2022. This decision, likely made to control inflation or stabilize the economy, has directly impacted the previously rapidly growing real estate market.
II. Impact on the real estate market
The rise in financing costs has led to a slowdown in the growth of house prices. This demonstrates that the SNB's monetary decisions directly influence buyer and seller behavior.
III. Current rate perspective
The SNB has raised its rate by 2.0 percentage points in a year. Another increase is anticipated, which could have further repercussions on the market.
IV. Historical rate comparison
The current mortgage rates, though the highest since 2011, are still far from the 2008 levels. This suggests that the market has previously managed higher rates.
V. Apartment segment
Apartments have not seen a significant slowdown, likely due to a limited supply, which keeps prices high.
VI. UBS Analysis
UBS believes that housing prices will remain resilient despite rising costs. The low construction activity is a key factor, as it limits supply.
VII. Jean-Pascal Baechler's Perspective
Mr. Baechler offers a reassuring perspective, highlighting that rates, although rising, remain historically low. He also notes the robustness of the Swiss mortgage system.
Conclusion
The rise in interest rates in Switzerland has undoubtedly influenced the real estate market. However, thanks to the historical prudence of borrowers and lenders, and the robustness of the Swiss financial system, the market seems well-equipped to handle these challenges. The coming months will be crucial to observe how these dynamics evolve.
Keywords: Swiss National Bank, interest rates, Swiss real estate market, financing costs, UBS, Jean-Pascal Baechler, monetary policy, mortgage rates, apartments, houses.
