Mortgage rates in Switzerland: Impact on the real estate market in 2024 and outlook for 2025.

Introduction

The Swiss real estate market is undergoing a period of transformation driven by changes in mortgage rates and strategic decisions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In Geneva, one of the most sought-after real estate markets, these fluctuations directly impact investors, developers, and buyers. This article delves into current trends, investment opportunities, and prospects for 2024, while exploring the potential return to near-zero interest rates in the coming years.

I. Trends in Swiss Mortgage Rates in 2024

Mortgage Rates Influenced by SNB's Monetary Policy

The SNB plays a pivotal role in shaping Swiss mortgage rates. With inflation under control and the strength of the Swiss franc weighing on economic competitiveness, the central bank may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in the months ahead.

Anticipated Cuts to Policy Rates

Forecasts suggest that the SNB may lower its policy rates by 0.25 percentage points in December 2023 and another 0.25 points in March 2024, bringing the SARON rate to around 0.5%. These cuts aim to support Swiss exporters and ease pressure on the overvalued franc.

Fixed Rate or SARON?

Borrowers in Switzerland will continue to choose between:

• Fixed-rate mortgages, ideal for long-term security but less responsive to rate reductions.

• SARON-based mortgages, offering flexibility that may become increasingly appealing if the SNB continues rate cuts.

Geneva: A Market Sensitive to Rate Fluctuations

Lower rates are expected to enhance the attractiveness of real estate investments in Geneva, a city characterized by high demand and sustained price pressures.

II. Impact of Mortgage Rates on Geneva's Real Estate Market

Rising Demand and Price Pressure

Historically low interest rates drive potential buyers and investors to Geneva's real estate market, fueling continuous price increases, particularly in high-end and residential segments.

• Residential real estate: Strong demand persists for family apartments and villas, especially in well-located neighborhoods.

• Commercial real estate: Businesses are leveraging favorable financing conditions to invest in modern offices and commercial spaces.

Focus on Sustainable Real Estate Projects

In Geneva, Oaks Group SA stands out with real estate projects emphasizing sustainability. These initiatives integrate energy efficiency, modern architecture, and environmental respect, meeting the expectations of today's buyers.

III. Could a SARON Rate of 0% Be Feasible in the Medium Term?

The Swiss Franc: Too Strong?

The Swiss franc, seen as a safe haven, remains highly sought after in international markets. This structural appreciation could harm Swiss export competitiveness, prompting the SNB to consider further rate reductions.

Economic Factors Supporting a Lower SARON

• International competitiveness: Continued franc appreciation against the euro and dollar could drive the SNB to intervene in favor of exporters.

• Global economic slowdown: A prolonged recession in Europe or other regions may lead the SNB to adopt more accommodative monetary policies.

• Low inflationary pressure: Unlike other economies, Switzerland manages to control inflation, providing room for lower rates.

A Realistic Scenario for 2025-2030?

If global economic challenges and the overvaluation of the franc persist, a return to a SARON rate near 0% or slightly positive could be plausible. This scenario would benefit investors and borrowers while boosting the competitiveness of the Swiss economy.

IV. Why Invest in Geneva Real Estate in 2024?

1. Attractive Mortgage Rates

With fixed rates around 1.5% and SARON rates potentially dropping to 0.5% by 2024, financing conditions in Switzerland remain historically favorable.

2. Sustained Demand in a Limited Market

Geneva combines strong international appeal with limited supply, ensuring continued property value appreciation.

3. Opportunities in Sustainable Real Estate

High-quality real estate projects incorporating green technologies and sustainable materials address modern investors' expectations while ensuring better long-term returns.

V. Tips for Optimizing Your Mortgage

1. Evaluate Your Financing Options

Compare fixed-rate and SARON-based mortgages to find the best fit for your financial situation and long-term goals.

2. Use Online Calculators

Anticipate costs by calculating monthly payments at different mortgage rates.

3. Seek Local Expertise

An experienced real estate broker or financial advisor can help negotiate optimal terms and navigate Geneva's complex market.

Conclusion

The Swiss real estate market, particularly in Geneva, remains dynamic thanks to attractive mortgage rates and sustained demand. The possibility of a SARON rate of 0.5% by 2024 presents promising prospects for investors. In the medium term, additional reductions may be considered if the SNB aims to maintain Switzerland's economic competitiveness amid a strong franc. Oaks Group SA continues to offer innovative and sustainable real estate solutions, meeting the expectations of quality- and environmentally-conscious buyers and investors.

FAQ: Mortgage Rates and Real Estate in Geneva

1. What are the average mortgage rates in Switzerland for 2024?

Fixed mortgage rates are around 1.5%, while SARON-based mortgages could drop to approximately 0.5%, following anticipated SNB rate cuts.

2. Why might the SARON rate drop further?

A strong Swiss franc and international economic pressures could prompt the SNB to continue its cycle of rate cuts, bringing the SARON rate closer to 0%.

3. Is investing in Geneva real estate in 2024 a good idea?

Absolutely. Low mortgage rates, strong demand, and sustainable real estate projects make Geneva a standout investment opportunity.

Ramzi Chamat
OAKS GROUP SA