| RAMZI CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP
As of September 31, 2025, the Swiss real estate market shows remarkable stability. In a context marked by the upcoming abolition of imputed rental value and historically low mortgage rates, residential property prices continue their moderate upward trend. The third quarter confirms a solid recovery, supported by sustained demand and increased transaction activity across most major urban areas.
Average prices for both apartments and single-family houses rose by +0.7% in the third quarter of 2025, showing identical momentum across both segments.
Over twelve months, apartments gained +2.6%, while detached houses rose by +2.2%, erasing part of the gap accumulated in 2023.
Regional disparities continue to narrow:
For houses, Sion (+1.5%), Lugano (+1.1%), and St. Gallen (+1.0%) drive quarterly gains, while Geneva records a modest drop of –0.3%.
This uniformity reflects a market that has returned to equilibrium. Differences between cantons remain limited: the Grisons, Valais, and Ticino post the strongest performance for houses, while Appenzell Innerrhoden and Fribourg lead in apartment growth. Only Jura and Glarus remain in negative territory.
The canton of Geneva retains its status as the tightest market in French-speaking Switzerland, even though the third quarter of 2025 recorded a slight price correction (-0.4% for apartments and -0.3% for houses).
This temporary adjustment reflects increasing buyer selectivity in an environment of record-low supply.
Following a cumulative increase of more than 6% between 2023 and 2024, Geneva’s apartment market shows an expected stabilization. High-end properties and newly built apartments close to the city center remain highly sought after, while older units requiring renovation face stronger negotiations. The median price for condominiums (PPE) in Geneva holds around CHF 13,500/m², with peaks exceeding CHF 18,000/m² in the most desirable neighborhoods (Champel, Florissant, Cologny).
In the single-family home segment, supply remains extremely limited. Most transactions involve renovated properties or those located in the canton’s most prestigious communes (Collonge-Bellerive, Cologny, Chêne-Bougeries, Vandoeuvres). Prices range between CHF 16,000 and CHF 22,000 per m², depending on location, view, and building quality. The mild decline seen in Q3 is mainly due to the composition of transactions (fewer ultra-luxury sales this quarter) rather than a change in underlying fundamentals.
Short-term prospects remain stable to slightly positive, supported by:
Rare but high-value new projects, especially along the lakeside and in peripheral communes such as Pregny-Chambésy, Vésenaz, and Bernex. In the medium term, the upcoming fiscal reform may encourage long-term ownership retention and further reduce market turnover, deepening the shortage and keeping prices at elevated levels.
The year 2025 marks a clear rebound in sales volumes. Real estate transactions increased by +3% quarter-on-quarter and +20% year-on-year, reaching their highest level in two years. This dynamic reflects renewed buyer confidence, underpinned by favorable financing conditions.
Major urban centers (Zurich, Geneva, Basel) still account for about 30% of total transactions, but their share is gradually declining in favor of mid-sized agglomerations such as Lausanne, Bern, Fribourg, and Lugano, which now represent around 20% of total activity — the highest proportion in a decade. Suburban areas maintain their attractiveness, while rural regions show a slight contraction.
In French-speaking Switzerland, the rebound is most pronounced in Vaud and Fribourg, driven by a catch-up effect following a slow 2024. Ticino and Jura remain comparatively weaker.
Despite a slight uptick, residential construction still fails to close the structural housing gap.
The construction index rose by +0.6% year-on-year, with around 44,000 housing units delivered, compared to 42,000 initially projected. However, the value of building permits declined by 8%, suggesting this momentum may be short-lived.
Order books remain well filled through early 2026, yet the volume of new supply remains inadequate to meet demand. This persistent shortage continues to support property prices, preventing any meaningful correction despite market normalization.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its key interest rate at 0% in September 2025, with annual inflation at just +0.2%. Fixed-rate mortgages (10-year) currently range between 1.3% and 2.0%, levels comparable to those seen in 2020–2021. Monetary policy therefore remains a key stabilizing factor for the residential market.
Internationally, anticipated rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a pause by the European Central Bank (ECB) point toward a sustained, low-yield environment, allowing Switzerland to maintain a neutral to slightly accommodative stance.
The referendum of September 28, 2025, marks a major fiscal turning point:
While the reform benefits low-debt households, it penalizes recent buyers and first-time homeowners, who will lose interest and maintenance deductions. It could also discourage the sale of older properties, particularly among elderly, debt-free owners, exacerbating the supply shortage.
In the short term, the impact on prices should remain limited, but over the medium term, the reform could further tighten the market, especially for second homes and renovation properties.
Given the moderate recovery and favorable financial conditions, annual price forecasts are now revised to +3% to +3.5% for 2025. The market remains supported by resilient demand, structurally limited supply, and a neutral monetary framework. While the reform introduces uncertainty, it is more likely to stabilize prices than to fuel acceleration.
In 2026, Switzerland is expected to continue along a path of steady, sustainable growth, without the risk of overheating.
The third quarter of 2025 confirms the structural strength of the Swiss real estate market, which continues to evolve within an exceptionally stable environment. Despite uncertainties linked to fiscal reform and the end of the imputed rental system, the fundamentals remain robust: solid demand, favorable financing, and a structurally tight supply.
The slight slowdowns observed in some agglomerations, such as Geneva or Biel, do not reflect weakness but rather a natural adjustment phase after years of sustained growth. Conversely, the persistent rise in transaction volumes — over +20% year-on-year — signals a renewed sense of confidence among buyers, driven by greater visibility on interest rates and macroeconomic stability.
In the short term, the Swiss market should maintain a controlled growth trajectory, with moderate price increases and balanced activity between urban and peripheral areas. Over the medium term, the abolition of the imputed rental value is likely to tighten supply further, as many owners opt to retain their properties.
Combined with a chronic undersupply of new housing, this imbalance is expected to sustain upward pressure through 2026 and beyond.
For market participants — developers, brokers, lenders, and institutional investors — the coming period will be a cycle of disciplined balance, where performance depends on location quality, cost control, and anticipation of fiscal shifts. Switzerland thus reaffirms its position as a resilient, predictable, and globally attractive market, appealing to both domestic households and international capital seeking long-term stability.
In essence, Q3 2025 marks the continuation of a sustainable normalization phase, where measured growth becomes a sign of maturity and strength — a rare equilibrium in today’s European real estate landscape.
¹ RealAdvisor Research | ² Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and Cantonal Statistical Offices of Geneva, Zurich, Ticino | ³ Swiss Real Estate Data Pool | ⁴ Swiss Contractors Association (SSE) | ⁵ Swiss National Bank (SNB) | ⁶ Geneva Chamber of Notaries, RealAdvisor Finance | ⁷ U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB)
