| RAMZI CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP SA
Switzerland is facing a real estate crisis marked by the continued decline in the rate of vacant housing, particularly in large cities and the French-speaking cantons. This housing shortage, exacerbated by demographic, economic and regulatory factors, creates tensions on the real estate market, making access to rental or purchase difficult. This article examines recent figures, root causes and future prospects for this changing market.
In recent years, Switzerland has experienced a significant decrease in the vacancy rate for housing. In 2024, this trend is intensifying, particularly affecting major cities like Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich, thereby creating tensions in the real estate market. Recent data reveals a continuous decline in available housing, raising serious concerns about the future of the rental market and the accessibility of property ownership.
The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) published alarming figures as of June 1, 2024. The vacancy rate in the canton of Vaud fell to 0.96%, a threshold not crossed since 2017. Although this decline has been anticipated for several years, it highlights the growing difficulty for residents to find available housing for rent or purchase. Nationally, the vacancy rate stands at 1.08%, which remains insufficient to meet demand.
Geneva is one of the hardest-hit cities, with a vacancy rate of only 0.46%. Although slightly higher than in the previous two years, this figure remains extremely low, reflecting the intense pressure on the Geneva real estate market. Other French-speaking cantons have slightly higher rates, but the overall trend remains concerning: 1.16% in Fribourg, 1.21% in Bern, 1.43% in Valais, and 1.68% in Neuchâtel. The canton of Jura, however, stands out with a rate of 2.98%, representing the only place where the housing supply appears to meet demand.
Swiss cities are experiencing acute tension in the housing market. Both Zurich and Geneva have a vacancy rate of 0.58%, with Lausanne following closely at 0.67%. These figures illustrate a chronic housing shortage, especially in urban centers. Bern (0.76%) and Basel (0.84%) also show signs of scarcity, but to a lesser extent.
This housing deficit can be explained by several factors. On the one hand, population growth and the economic attractiveness of large cities continually increase demand. On the other hand, new housing construction is hampered by strict regulations, high costs, and limited availability of buildable land. As a result, supply fails to keep pace with demand, leading to pressure on rents and real estate prices.
Several factors contribute to the ongoing decline in the housing vacancy rate. Firstly, construction activity remains relatively low, mainly due to regulatory obstacles and lengthy authorization procedures. Urban areas face significant spatial constraints, limiting the possibility of building new homes.
Additionally, investors are becoming increasingly cautious regarding real estate development due to economic uncertainties and market fluctuations. The rise in construction costs and the reinforcement of sustainability requirements also slow down the completion of new projects. Furthermore, new constructions tend to focus on high-end housing, which is largely inaccessible to a significant portion of the population, thus exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.
The year 2024 reveals a notable divergence between rental and sales markets. According to the FSO, the decline in unoccupied rental properties, which began in 2021, continues but less sharply. Meanwhile, the number of unoccupied properties for sale increased by 999 units, a 9.5% rise. This trend is partly explained by the increasing difficulty households face in acquiring property due to rising prices and stricter financing conditions.
In this context, rental properties remain highly sought after, and their scarcity contributes to rising rents, making access to housing increasingly difficult, particularly for young people and low-income families. This situation presents significant socio-economic challenges, accentuating inequalities and the risk of precarity.
Geneva exemplifies the complexity of the Swiss real estate market. The city, already facing high demand due to its international appeal and growing population, encounters significant limitations in terms of real estate development. Buildable land is scarce, and strict regulations severely restrict the possibilities for new construction.
The shortage of vacant housing in Geneva directly results in increased rents, forcing many residents to seek alternatives in surrounding communes or even in neighboring cantons. This situation creates an increasingly marked "commuting" phenomenon, where Geneva’s workers must travel long distances to get to work, causing mobility issues and environmental impacts.
The decrease in the vacancy rate raises crucial questions about the future. How can this shortage be addressed without compromising quality of life and the environment? One solution lies in adapting urban planning and housing policies. Authorities need to encourage the construction of affordable housing, especially in peri-urban areas, while streamlining administrative procedures related to real estate projects.
Furthermore, the development of sustainable, energy-efficient housing must be a priority to tackle climate challenges while increasing supply. Financial incentives could encourage investors and developers to focus their projects on more accessible housing.
Finally, promoting cooperative housing or co-ownership could represent an interesting alternative to diversify the housing supply and facilitate homeownership for a larger number of households. Integrating these various strategies will help ease pressure on the real estate market and restore a certain balance between supply and demand.
The declining vacancy rate in Switzerland reflects growing tensions in the real estate market. The French-speaking cantons, particularly Geneva and Lausanne, are facing a shortage that complicates access to housing for many residents. The confluence of factors such as low construction rates, complex regulations, and market trends contribute to this critical situation.
To address it, an in-depth reflection on housing and urban planning policies is needed, prioritizing the construction of affordable housing, diversifying supply, and adopting a sustainable approach to real estate development. This is a major challenge for the coming years, but it is essential to ensure equitable quality of life and social cohesion in the country.
