| R. CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP
March 1st, 2026 is not a spectacular date. It heralds neither a major reform nor a tax overhaul. And yet, for many buyers, this deadline will have a very real impact on the true cost of a property acquisition. Casatax works precisely this way: discreet, technical, often pushed into the background… until the moment it becomes decisive.
In practice, we find that Casatax is rarely misunderstood in principle. Its real impact, however, is very often overestimated—or, conversely, underestimated—due to the lack of a structured reading. One month before the 2026 schedule comes into force, it is worth setting out a clear framework, without excessive anticipation or unwarranted minimisation.
This is a fundamental point, yet one that is still too often overlooked: Casatax is not indexed to property sale prices, but to changes in the construction cost index.
This mechanism explains the relative stability of the scheme. Even when the real estate market moves quickly, Casatax follows a slower, more technical rhythm—sometimes frustrating for buyers hoping for a catch-up effect. That is simply not its purpose.
In the practical execution of projects, Casatax acts as a partial tax adjustment mechanism. It accompanies the structural increase in costs, without ever claiming to offset land scarcity or demand pressure. This logic has remained consistent for several years, and nothing suggests a change in philosophy for 2026.
If Casatax 2026 is attracting so much attention, it is not because a break with the past is expected. It is because the market now sits at the edge of the eligibility thresholds.
An increasing number of transactions are being completed just a few thousand—sometimes a few tens of thousands—Swiss francs away from those limits. In these intermediate zones, even a modest adjustment can have a tangible effect: making a project eligible, materially improving its financial balance, or conversely confirming its exclusion.
This choice is not neutral. It affects the signing timeline, the negotiation strategy, and sometimes the very structure of the financing. As March 1st approaches, the real question is therefore not whether Casatax will “increase,” but whether your project is sensitive to that variation.
Without anticipating the official figures, certain elements can be considered structurally likely.
The adjustments observed in recent years have remained contained. They reflect changes in construction costs, generally within a moderate range. Casatax 2026 should follow this same pattern, with gradual progression and no abrupt catch-up effect.
In practical terms, this means a marginal broadening of eligibility—not a redefinition of the scheme’s scope.
The reduction in transfer duties and the reduction linked to mortgage deed costs are based on a stable tax architecture. In the absence of an explicit reform, a short-term challenge to these mechanisms is unlikely.
This stability is reassuring, but it also implies one thing: the additional benefits expected in 2026 will remain limited.
On the ground, the impact of Casatax 2026 varies depending on where a project sits relative to the thresholds.
In this case, waiting until March 1st rarely provides a decisive advantage. The additional tax benefit exists, but it is marginal compared to the broader issues at stake: negotiated price, financing conditions, and property availability. Delaying a signing solely for Casatax is rarely justified.
Here, the 2026 adjustment changes nothing. A property that is structurally outside the scope does not become eligible through a simple annual adjustment. Waiting then exposes the buyer more to market or financing risks than to any real tax gain.
This is where Casatax 2026 becomes truly relevant. A project positioned just above the threshold may tip into eligibility, or move close enough to make negotiation worthwhile. Conversely, a project optimistically positioned may remain excluded despite waiting.
In these situations, the decision to wait or to sign must be quantified, not intuitive. Ignoring this exposes buyers to difficult ex-post trade-offs that are hard to correct.
Over the medium term, Casatax will continue to play its role as a tax buffer, without following the actual trajectory of property prices. This logic will gradually widen the gap: “standard” properties will remain within the scheme, while premium assets will move definitively beyond it.
Over the long term, Casatax should not be seen as a decision driver, but as a risk-mitigation tool. It improves the financial equation without ever transforming it. Relying on Casatax to “make possible” a structurally overstretched project is a common mistake.
This choice engages the buyer’s responsibility. It also affects the robustness of the financing structure over time.
Casatax 2026 will bring neither a major surprise nor a disruption. But as March 1st approaches, it deserves a precise reading—free from excessive expectations as well as from shortcuts.
For some projects, the impact will be marginal. For others, it will make the difference between a fragile structure and a controlled one. The value does not lie in the announcement of the thresholds, but in the ability to position one’s project in relation to them.
In Geneva, real estate decisions are rarely determined by a single figure. Casatax 2026 fits squarely into this reality: a discreet parameter, yet a decisive one when properly understood and methodically integrated.
