| RAMZI CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP
After several years marked by rapid adjustments, monetary shocks and high macroeconomic uncertainty, Geneva’s real estate market is approaching 2026 in a profoundly renewed environment. Indicators are converging, narratives are realigning, and investment strategies are being redeployed. Without excessive euphoria, but with greater clarity, income-producing real estate in Geneva is regaining a readable trajectory, built on solid fundamentals, persistent structural scarcity and a stabilised financial environment.
For OAKS GROUP, this phase represents less a cyclical rebound than a return to a demanding, selective market normality capable of generating long-term value.
The primary driver behind this shift in paradigm lies in Swiss monetary policy. Following the abrupt exit from negative interest rates in 2022 and the transaction freeze that followed, 2024 and 2025 gradually restored visibility to the market.
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to maintain its policy rate at 0% has acted as a major stabilising force. With inflation now under control, market participants once again have a coherent framework for projections, both in terms of financing and asset valuation.
This monetary stability does not generate speculative windfalls. Instead, it enables rational risk assessment, realistic financial modelling and a gradual return of liquidity to a historically tight market.
In Geneva, supply remains the central issue. Housing shortages, regulatory complexity, land scarcity and long development timelines continue to severely limit the creation of new volumes.
Even though construction activity shows signs of a moderate recovery, it remains insufficient to absorb structural demand driven by demographic growth, the canton’s economic attractiveness and its international positioning.
In this context, scarcity is not cyclical but structural. It mechanically supports values, particularly for well-located residential assets that comply with current standards and require no major short-term capital expenditure.
Recent analyses converge on a clear conclusion: expected net yields continue to compress, reflecting a broad return of investor confidence.
According to market data, high-quality residential buildings now display expected net yields of approximately 3% to 3.8%, with even lower levels for assets located in Geneva’s prime city centre. In certain premium locations, institutional investors are accepting yields close to 2%, reflecting a deliberate trade-off between capital security and immediate performance.
On the commercial side, particularly office properties, yields remain higher but are also trending downward. This yield compression is mechanically driving a gradual revaluation of capital values, paving the way for portfolio rebalancing from 2026 onward.
Another strong signal lies in investor behaviour. After a prolonged wait-and-see phase, appetite for real estate investment has clearly returned.
The majority of surveyed market participants now consider themselves to be in an active acquisition phase, while divestment strategies are virtually absent. This imbalance between buyers and sellers helps support pricing in a market where liquidity remains limited.
Capital increases within indirect investment vehicles, combined with a restricted supply of available assets, continue to exert upward pressure on investment activity. Even in an environment of moderate rental growth, this pressure provides lasting support to transaction values.
Residential real estate remains the cornerstone of Geneva’s market. Rents are expected to continue rising slightly in 2026, but at a much more moderate pace than in recent years. This trend reflects both a more measured economic environment and adjustments to the reference interest rate, which allow some tenants to request rent reductions on existing leases.
The commercial segment, meanwhile, is undergoing a more nuanced repositioning. Office rents may experience a slight correction, but well-located, flexible assets aligned with new usage patterns remain highly attractive. A gradual shift of capital from residential to commercial assets is also observable, driven by the elevated pricing levels in the housing sector.
Across both segments, selectivity has become the rule. Intrinsic asset quality, location and adaptability now clearly outweigh any purely opportunistic logic.
An analysis of yield differentials confirms a structural trend: location and access to public transportation have become decisive value drivers.
In Geneva, the difference in expected yield between a centrally located, well-connected building and a poorly served peripheral asset can exceed 20%. This reality strengthens the appeal of central districts and mobility hubs while durably penalising secondary locations.
For investors, this requires a granular understanding of the urban fabric and forward-looking analysis of infrastructure developments, well beyond simple financial metrics.
Environmental, social and governance criteria are no longer merely differentiating factors. They have become market standards.
The vast majority of investors now integrate ESG considerations into acquisition decisions. While some remain willing to acquire assets requiring compliance upgrades, such projects are systematically approached with a medium-term value-creation mindset, supported by precise assessments of costs, timelines and regulatory constraints.
In Geneva, rising energy-efficiency requirements and enhanced tenant protection measures add an additional layer of complexity, without undermining overall market attractiveness. They instead favour players capable of structuring, financing and managing projects throughout their entire life cycle.
One of the key lessons for 2026 lies in the nature of the expected growth. Rather than being fuelled by interest-rate effects, growth is becoming more organic, driven by income generation, scarcity and asset quality.
Analyst forecasts, including those from Wüest Partner, point to moderate price increases of around 1.5% to 2%, consistent with a mature and disciplined market.
This environment rewards structured strategies based on product excellence, rigorous management and a long-term vision.
As 2026 approaches, all signals are turning green for Geneva’s income-producing real estate market. Monetary stability, structural scarcity, returning liquidity, renewed investor confidence and the rising importance of qualitative criteria together form a healthy, transparent and resilient environment.
In an international context that remains uncertain, Geneva once again confirms its status as a safe-haven market, where performance is built not on haste or speculation, but on control, selectivity and strategic vision.
For OAKS GROUP, this new phase represents a natural continuation: identifying the right locations, structuring robust projects, creating sustainable value and supporting partners and lenders within a secure, transparent and demanding framework. 2026 does not mark a simple rebound. It opens a more mature, higher-quality cycle firmly oriented toward the long term.
