| RAMZI CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP
2026 will be a year of sustainably low interest rates, ideal for financing and securing real estate projects, but one that requires discipline, selectivity, and excellent execution. In a global economic environment still marked by geopolitical uncertainties and post-crisis adjustments, Switzerland stands out for its remarkable monetary stability. Looking ahead to 2026, this stability creates a particularly clear and predictable framework for real estate players, whether buyers, developers, or financial partners. An analysis of mortgage rate prospects makes it possible to anticipate opportunities and define the strategies to prioritize with precision.
After several years of significant fluctuations, Swiss monetary policy has entered a phase of normalization. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), which began raising its key interest rate in 2022 to combat exceptional imported inflation, gradually reversed this trend in 2024 and the first half of 2025.
Since mid-2025, the key interest rate has returned to 0% and has remained there. This decision is based on a clear assessment:
For 2026, forecasts converge toward low inflation of around 0.3%, with Swiss economic growth estimated at approximately 0.9%. While below the long-term average, this pace is sufficient to avoid any recessionary scenario.
In this context, UBS anticipates a continuation of the low interest rate environment throughout 2026.
Mortgages indexed to SARON are expected to move largely sideways, around 0%. As long as the SNB maintains its key rate unchanged, no significant fluctuations are anticipated. SARON therefore remains a particularly attractive financing tool for project holding periods and dynamic financing strategies.
Medium- and long-term fixed rates may experience slight marginal increases, mainly driven by an improvement in the eurozone economic outlook or a moderate rise in government bond yields. However, these movements are expected to remain limited and will not undermine the historically low level of current rates.
In summary, 2026 is shaping up to be neither a year of further monetary easing nor one of tightening: it represents a plateau of stability.
Persistently low interest rates continue to support property prices, particularly in regions with strong land constraints such as Geneva and the Lake Geneva area. The absence of upward pressure on financing costs limits the risk of rate-driven price corrections.
For developers and promoters, 2026 offers rare visibility. The cost of capital is known, controlled, and predictable. This favors:
However, moderate economic growth requires greater selectivity: only well-located projects, appropriately scaled and aligned with real market demand will fully benefit from this environment.
Unlike periods of euphoria or crisis, 2026 is characterized by a rational and readable environment. The main risk is no longer monetary, but operational:
Players capable of structuring their financing intelligently, arbitrating between variable and fixed rates, and finely anticipating commercialization cycles will gain a decisive competitive advantage.
The year 2026 falls within a rare framework of interest rate stability, conducive to well-considered decisions and long-term strategies. For Swiss real estate, and especially for high-quality projects, this context provides a solid foundation: neither euphoric nor restrictive, but demanding in terms of discipline and execution. In such an environment, value creation relies less on anticipating interest rate movements and more on the intrinsic quality of projects and the rigor of their execution.
