| R. CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP
The end of 2025 marks a clear inflection point for Switzerland’s residential real estate market. After several years dominated by caution, the market has regained a readable dynamic. Prices are rising again, transaction volumes have stopped declining, and construction activity is stabilizing. In the practical execution of projects, this alignment fundamentally changes the nature of decision-making: decisions are once again possible, but they remain demanding.
This year-end barometer does not aim to comment on marginal variations. Its purpose is to understand what the figures reveal about the real market: a heterogeneous market, constrained by supply, supported by resilient demand, and increasingly shaped by structurally significant regional disparities.
The year 2025 is the first since 2021 in which the main indicators have moved simultaneously in the same direction. Sale prices, transaction volumes, and residential construction activity have all moved out of stagnation. This realignment is not trivial: it brings to an end a period during which every positive signal was offset by another factor—whether interest rates, inflation, or supply constraints.
On the ground, this normalization has translated into greater clarity. The gap between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ financing capacity has narrowed. Decisions are not being made faster, but they have become rational again. This context explains why 2025 is perceived as a year of active stabilization rather than a simple technical rebound.
The question is no longer whether the market has restarted, but how it now functions. Does the observed recovery stem from a cyclical catch-up effect, or from deeper structural imbalances?
This distinction is decisive. A market supported solely by favorable financial conditions remains vulnerable. A market driven by persistently limited supply and structurally resilient demand, by contrast, follows a more predictable trajectory. Ignoring this nuance leads to simplistic readings and poorly calibrated decisions—particularly in a country where real estate is inherently a long-term asset.
In 2025, apartment prices rose by 3.1%, while single-family home prices increased by 2.4%. This marks the second consecutive year of acceleration after a much more moderate 2022–2023 cycle. The increase is all the more significant given that annual inflation was zero: the gains recorded are entirely real.
Apartments have outperformed houses for the fourth consecutive year. This trend reflects well-identified constraints: land scarcity, urban densification, and household budget trade-offs. The house segment, long lagging behind, has nonetheless largely caught up. The market today appears more homogeneous than it did as recently as 2022.
Among the country’s fifteen largest agglomerations, fourteen recorded an annual increase in apartment prices. Central Switzerland stands out clearly. Zug and Lucerne posted increases above 5%, confirming the region’s lasting attractiveness. Zurich continues on a solid trajectory, supported by a deep economic base and structurally constrained supply.
By contrast, Lugano remains under pressure, with declining prices extending a weakness observed over several years. This downturn is not cyclical. It reflects deeper imbalances related to demand, demographics, and excess inventory.
At the cantonal level, Schwyz stands out with apartment price growth exceeding 8%. Zug, Graubünden, and Fribourg complete the leading group. Ticino remains the only canton in negative territory, confirming a structural underperformance. These gaps underscore that the Swiss real estate market can never be read through a national average alone.
These regional divergences have very tangible consequences. Where supply is tightening, selling times shorten and negotiation margins shrink. In Zug or Schwyz, a property sells in just over two months on average. Contractual conditions are correspondingly firmer: increased pressure on financing, stricter requirements, and more visible competition among buyers.
Conversely, in regions where inventories are building up, selling times frequently exceed six months. Ticino illustrates this situation, with a volume of listings unmatched elsewhere in the country. In these markets, liquidity becomes the decisive factor. Sellers must adjust expectations, both in terms of price and timing.
After three years of decline, transaction volumes rose by around 7% in 2025. This increase marks a turning point, but it remains relative. Activity is still about one-third below 2021 levels and below the long-term average.
In practice, this recovery reflects a gradual release of pent-up demand. Households that postponed decisions between 2022 and 2024 have progressively returned to the market, encouraged by financing conditions that have become more predictable. Long-term mortgage rates have stabilized around 1.6–1.7%, while short-term financing shows effective costs below 1%.
Residential construction activity stopped declining in 2025. The sector index returned to its reference level for the first time in two years. This rebound, however, remains insufficient to offset the accumulated shortfall.
Demand continues to exceed supply across much of the country. Population growth, driven by sustained net migration, exerts constant pressure on the existing housing stock. At the same time, the average holding period for owner-occupied homes remains long, limiting stock turnover. In the medium term, this structural imbalance cannot be corrected quickly.
The outlook for 2026 follows the same trajectory. Price growth is expected to moderate to around 2–3% without tipping into stagnation. A softer economic environment keeps financing conditions highly favorable, supporting demand without creating overheating.
The most constrained markets, particularly in Central Switzerland, should continue to outperform. Other regions, facing excess supply, may see zero growth. This divergence is not a systemic risk; it reflects a mature market in which local fundamentals outweigh national dynamics.
The year 2025 did not mark an overheating phase, but a return to balance. The Swiss real estate market is once again functioning coherently, supported by resilient demand and persistently constrained supply. Regional disparities are intensifying, but they do not weaken the market as a whole. They have now become its primary lens of interpretation.
