| R. CHAMAT | OAKS GROUP
The first quarter of 2026 does not mark a turning point. It confirms a trajectory, but more importantly, a more subtle shift in how the Swiss residential real estate market is behaving.
Prices are rising — +4.1% for apartments and +2.8% for single-family homes over twelve months — in an environment where inflation remains marginal at +0.1%. In other words, the increase is entirely real. It is not driven by monetary effects or artificial value expansion.
In practice, this kind of configuration requires looking beyond price levels alone. What is unfolding here is more structural: growth is no longer concentrated, it is spreading. Geographic balances are shifting, and so are buyer arbitrages.
This shift is rarely spectacular. But it calls for a different reading of the market — one that is more demanding, more attentive to underlying signals than to visible fluctuations.
For several cycles, growth was concentrated in a limited number of dominant regions. That structure is now gradually dissolving.
This quarter, momentum clearly shifts toward peripheral markets. Regions such as Valais, Graubünden, Neuchâtel, and Fribourg are taking the lead.
Concretely, this is reflected in strong quarterly growth in areas previously considered secondary:
At the cantonal level:
At the same time, historically dominant markets remain positive but more moderate:
On the ground, this reflects a clear shift in demand. Core markets remain attractive, but a growing share of buyers is repositioning toward regions offering more accessible entry points.
This movement is not opportunistic. It is becoming structural.
The apartment segment confirms this broadening trend.
Growth is not limited to a handful of markets. It is visible across the entire country. Every major urban area and every canton shows positive momentum.
This level of uniformity is uncommon.
In real transaction environments, it significantly alters risk perception. Identifying clearly underperforming areas becomes increasingly difficult. The market is gaining homogeneity.
This dynamic is supported by several simultaneous factors:
This shift is not neutral. It reinforces the role of apartments as the core segment of today’s residential market.
Single-family homes are up +0.7% over the quarter and +2.8% year-on-year.
The pace remains healthy, but it is lower than that of apartments for the third consecutive quarter.
In practice, this gap is widening.
Some regions remain dynamic:
At the cantonal level:
However, the picture is more nuanced.
Lugano records a slight decline of -0.2%, an isolated signal, but one that reflects a more locally sensitive market.
On the ground, the explanation is straightforward. Access to single-family homes is becoming more demanding:
This results in a more selective, less uniform market.
One of the most structuring aspects lies in the gap between perceived and actual supply.
Construction indicators are improving:
over 52,000 housing units authorized in 2025, compared to around 41,000 in 2023
The time between permit approval and delivery often spans several quarters, sometimes more than a year for larger projects. The 2025 pipeline will feed future supply—not today’s market.
In concrete terms, immediate pressure remains unchanged.
On the demand side, indicators confirm this tension:
population growth in 2025:
The equation is direct: more buyers, fewer available properties.
Ignoring this imbalance means underestimating the real pressure on prices.
Transaction activity confirms a gradual exit from the correction phase:
Over the past twelve months, activity is up approximately +4.7% year-on-year.
In practice, this remains a recovering market—not an overheated one.
This distinction is critical.
Prices are rising without volume excess. There is no euphoria, no speculative rotation. The increase is driven by scarcity, not by liquidity.
This configuration is more demanding—but also more resilient.
The financing environment remains a key pillar:
In practical terms, this sustains:
This support is direct. It absorbs part of the price increase.
But it comes with exposure. A strong dependence on financing conditions implies sensitivity to any macroeconomic shift.
The broader economic context remains balanced:
This environment does not create strong momentum, but it does not hinder the market either.
In practice, it limits excesses while maintaining a stable foundation.
An additional factor plays a role: geopolitical uncertainty. It reinforces Switzerland’s position as a safe haven, particularly benefiting prime markets and the high-end segment.
This quarter does not signal acceleration.
It confirms transformation.
The current upward trend rests on three clearly identifiable pillars:
This interpretation is not neutral.
Viewing this dynamic as temporary leads to waiting. Viewing it as structural implies accepting a more constrained reality: entry points are becoming increasingly demanding.
In the medium term, the delivery of authorized projects—over 52,000 units in 2025—should ease some pressure. But the effect will be gradual.
In the short term, the imbalance remains.
In this context, a consistent reading leads to a measured projection:
Support factors remain dominant, but constraints—affordability, moderate economic growth, demographic dynamics—limit any overheating scenario.
The Swiss residential market is not showing signs of overheating. It is showing something else.
In practice, prices are rising by +4.1% for apartments and +2.8% for houses, in a context of +0.1% inflation, with transaction volumes recovering by +4.7%, and immediate supply still constrained despite 52,000 authorized units.
These are not spectacular signals. They are coherent ones.
And it is precisely this coherence that makes the current trajectory credible over the long term.
