26 September 2026 — Ramzi Chamat
Mortgage Rates: SNB Maintains 0%, Hikes Expected for 2027
On September 24, 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced its monetary policy decision: the key interest rate remains fixed at 0%. This was an expected move, yet it occurs within an evolving international context. According to the latest analyses published by UBS, the rate cycle has turned, and borrowers should prepare accordingly.
A Stable Switzerland in a World of Rising Rates
With inflation at 0.8%, Switzerland remains firmly within the price stability range targeted by the SNB (between 0% and 2%). While the economy is recovering, it is not yet running at full capacity: there was no justification for an immediate change in course.
The situation is vastly different abroad. Facing more persistent inflationary pressures than expected and high public debt, both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised their key rates in September. UBS anticipates further hikes from them in December.
These movements have led to an increase in bond yields and fixed mortgage rates in Switzerland over the past month, though much more moderately than in Europe or the United States.
Two Hikes Expected in 2027
UBS forecasts a gradual improvement in economic conditions over the coming quarters, which is expected to lead the SNB to raise its key rate twice: in March and June 2027.
Capital markets have already largely priced in this scenario. Consequently:
- fixed mortgage rates should remain around their current levels for the time being;
- SARON mortgages are expected to become more expensive over the coming quarters, in line with the hikes in the key interest rate.
The Forecasts in Figures
The projections from UBS (in %) show a gradual rise, particularly in the short term:
| Rate | Current | Forecast 1 | Forecast 2 | Forecast 3 | Forecast 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARON | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| 3-year Swap | 0.59 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| 5-year Swap | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| 10-year Swap | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.87 |
Source: Bloomberg, UBS SA. Figures are forecasts and are subject to change upwards or downwards.
Swaps serve as a benchmark for banks to price fixed-rate mortgages: their relative stability explains why fixed rates are not expected to spike in the short term.
Reviewing the 2022-2026 Cycle
To understand the progress made, we must look back at the key milestones of the latest cycle:
- 2022: Faced with post-pandemic inflation and the conflict in Ukraine, the SNB raised rates, triggering a sharp rise in bond yields.
- 2023: Hikes continued to curb inflation, which fell significantly during the year. Yields began to decline toward the end of the year.
- 2024 – mid-2025: With inflation remaining durably low, the SNB gradually brought its key rate back to 0%.
- 2026: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a moderate uptick in inflation, but not enough to force the SNB to act this year.
What This Means for Your Real Estate Project
For buyers, the current window remains favorable: fixed rates are still at historically low levels. Securing a portion of your financing at a fixed rate is an effective way to protect yourself against the anticipated rise.
For holders of a SARON mortgage, it is relevant to evaluate the impact of two rate hikes on your monthly payments now and, if necessary, consider a combination of tranches (SARON and fixed) to mitigate risk.
For investors, a low-rate environment, combined with the housing shortage in Geneva, continues to support the value of quality properties. A measured rise in rates does not invalidate these fundamentals, but it does reinforce the importance of rigorous asset selection.
At OAKS GROUP, we assist owners and investors in analyzing their projects in light of these developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us to discuss your plans.
Source: UBS, “Mortgage rates: rate forecasts and evolution,” as of September 24, 2026.
